1. The Ukraine war was actively and persistently prepared by the West. The work began years before Ukraine became independent in 1991 following the breakup of the USSR, dating from the point where it became possible for Western NGOs to operate on Soviet territory under perestroika. As key US operative Victoria Nuland notoriously boasted in 2013, the sums spent were of the order of $5 billion.
This process took a huge step forward with the Maidan events in 2014 and the coming to power of anti-Russian chauvinist and far right forces (many ideologically inspired by World War II Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera), determined to crush the ethnic Russian population and “Ukrainise” the whole country. They began a civil war against the Donbass.
2. The West armed Ukraine and built up its military with the aim of an eventual war against Russia. The 2014 and 2015 Minsk accords aimed at establishing autonomy for the Donbass but neither Ukraine nor the West actually intended them to work but rather to gain time for Ukraine’s rearmament.
3. Seriously alarmed by the West’s evident intentions Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow’s aims have always been clear: a neutral, de-militarised, non-NATO Ukraine and the purging of the far right Nazi elements, especially from the “power ministries”. As for feverish Western propaganda claims that Russia wants to occupy the whole country, Russia has never shown any appetite for taking over more of Ukraine than Crimea, the Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which linguistically and culturally are heavily Russian.
4. Claims that Ukraine is fighting for self-determination and national independence are far-fetched. Its ruling circles gave those away in 2014 when they signed up for the West’s anti-Russian campaign. Ukraine has been used as the West’s creature: Western “advisers” are everywhere, in the military and in the government departments. It is heavy indebted to the US for arms supplies; Western companies now own large swathes of the economy.
5. Despite all the Western deceptions and media lies, it has long been clear that Russia is winning. The West’s sanctions have largely been overcome, Russia has built up its armed forces and its military economy, and Russia’s military has learnt from its setbacks and developed a formidable capacity. And despite the substantial human toll the regime has retained strong popular support. People broadly accept that the country is under a real threat from the West.
6. The war is a proxy one in which Ukraine supplies the cannon fodder and the West supplies military equipment, advisers, specialists and “volunteers”. Ukraine’s welfare is of no real concern to the US-NATO bloc.
Ukraine has paid an absolutely appalling price for its role as the West’s proxy. Hundreds of thousands are dead and maimed, there is massive material destruction and extreme population decline (due to loss of territory in the south and millions fleeing both to Western Europe and Russia).
7. Despite a vast amount of military assistance, the West has been unable to reverse the continual erosion of Ukraine’s situation on the battlefield. The missile and drone strikes deeper and deeper into Russia (carried out with Western weapons and dependent on Western specialists and intelligence) cannot stop the endless defeats on the ground but do risk touching off World War III. (Russian early warning systems now have to distinguish between Ukraine’s conventional missiles and drones and an actual US-NATO sneak nuclear attack.)
8. Europe, especially Germany, has also paid a heavy price for backing Washington in its anti-Russia crusade. With cheap energy supplies from Russia cut, Germany has been forced more and more into dependence on the US and its high-priced natural gas. Germany’s competitive position has sharply deteriorated. Popular living standards are falling as businesses cut back, close or relocate and military expenditures gobble up more and more government funds. One big reason for the rise of the far-right AfD is its opposition to the war in Ukraine and its call for normal trade relations with Russia.
9. In Ukraine the war is becoming increasingly unpopular.
In a relentless hunt for more cannon fodder to replace heavy losses at the front, conscription efforts have been steadily ramped up. But the military conscription gangs face actual physical attacks from the public: Numerous military recruitment vehicles have been burned, and in at least one case, a recruitment centre was set on fire. A good deal of the anger relates to the notorious corruption of the recruitment process. Busloads full of 16-year olds regularly cross the borders into Hungary, Romania and Slovakia (men aged 17 and over are forbidden to leave the country).
10. Donald Trump is undoubtedly many bad things (in a recent Workers Weekly article Jack Conrad described him well as a “revolutionary counterrevolutionary”) but he has realised clearly that the war in Ukraine is lost and he wants to get it off the table. The pro-war journalists and politicians in the West are frothing at his blunt but accurate comments (Russia was right to be alarmed at NATO’s relentless eastwards expansion, the war should never have happened, a peace deal should have been made long ago, Zelensky has no legitimacy).
11. In fact, a very reasonable peace deal was close to being endorsed in March-April of 2022, that is, just a month after the invasion started. But the West pressured Zelensky to junk it and promised Ukraine Western backing to keep fighting in order to weaken Russia. But that was then and now it’s clearly different.
12. Trump’s 90-day suspension of USAID expenditures may well have caused some serious public health issues in many countries. But USAID’s primary function has always been to achieve US goals through bankrolling media, NGOs and pro-US political actors across the world. In Ukraine the “independent” (anti-Russia, pro-war) media has been revealed to have been utterly dependent on Washington’s subsidies. This sector is now in crisis as the “grant eaters” scramble for money in an attempt to survive without USAID funds.
13. What now? Talks will proceed between the US and Russia. At the end of the day Ukraine will have no choice but to accept what is offered. Without Western military and financial aid it cannot resist for very long.
After all that has happened, Russia will surely not settle for less than its original aims. It also wants to keep the territories it has occupied. The only realistic “security guarantees” for Ukraine lie in good relations with Russia. Understandably, Russia will not settle for any deal which holds open the prospect of Ukraine rearming and preparing for round two.
The end would seem to be in sight for Washington’s bloody proxy war against Russia. Hopefully, the veritable tsunami of Western media lies and confusion that has accompanied it and assailed our senses for the last three years will also recede somewhat.
Ukraine, unfortunately, is likely to take a lot longer to recover from its deadly embrace of the West.